Portrush, Northern Ireland – The final major golf championship of the year is here. If the 2019 Open Championship is anything to go by, Royal Portrush is once again prepared to offer a superb setting for four exciting rounds to determine the champion golfer of the year.
This year`s major season has already delivered captivating results. World No. 2 Rory McIlroy achieved the career grand slam at the Masters, and the world`s top player, Scottie Scheffler, added another major title by winning the PGA Championship. Additionally, veteran player J.J. Spaun surprised the golf world last month by outlasting the field and conquering Oakmont for his maiden major victory at the U.S. Open.
All three champions, along with the world`s other leading players, are competing in the Open this week, aiming to make their mark on this major season`s narrative.
Here is an assessment of the 25 players most likely to lift the coveted Claret Jug on Sunday:
1. Scottie Scheffler
When discussing Scheffler before any major, the main point remains that he possesses a unique ability to simply dominate the competition. What makes his presence at the Open particularly interesting is watching how the three-time major winner adapts his game, which thrives stateside, to the distinct style of links golf overseas.
At the Scottish Open recently, Scheffler finished tied for eighth. His history at the Open Championship has been somewhat inconsistent compared to other majors. In four appearances, his best result is a tie for seventh place last year (following a tie for eighth in his 2021 debut), with two finishes outside the top 20 in between. This is noteworthy because, since 2021 (when he began playing all four majors), the Open is the only major where Scheffler has finished outside the top 20 more than once in 19 starts. Despite this, it`s widely expected that the world`s top player will be a strong contender this week.
2. Jon Rahm
Perhaps no player has shown more steady improvement throughout this year than Jon Rahm. Beyond his numerous top-10 finishes on the LIV Tour, his performances in the year`s biggest tournaments have been particularly strong. Since tying for seventh place at last year`s Open Championship at Royal Troon, Rahm seems to have rediscovered his peak form.
He finished 14th at the Masters and was firmly in contention on the back nine at Quail Hollow in the PGA Championship. Although he couldn`t catch Scheffler, his resilience there and his tie for seventh at Oakmont felt characteristic of Rahm. His competitive drive is unmatched, and considering his significant place in European golf history, it feels as though a Claret Jug is missing from his trophy cabinet. Given his recent play, Portrush appears to be a favorable venue for him to achieve that goal.
3. Rory McIlroy
So, here we are again. The Open returns to McIlroy`s native country, and he is expected – strongly expected – to be in the running for his sixth major title. The same anticipation surrounded him in 2019, only for McIlroy to famously hit his opening tee shot out of bounds and subsequently miss the cut. It was a rather anticlimactic end to a highly anticipated week.
Much has changed since then – McIlroy has won a green jacket and completed the career grand slam. However, his performance has been underwhelming since his historic Masters win in April. He has openly discussed struggling with motivation, while also acknowledging that playing this specific tournament in Northern Ireland should ignite something within him. That spark might have appeared a week early; at the Scottish Open, McIlroy displayed some of his best golf since the Masters, carding rounds of 68, 65, 66, and 68 to finish in a tie for second place.
4. Bryson DeChambeau
Similar to the intrigue surrounding DeChambeau`s strategic approach to Augusta National each year, it`s always fascinating to see how his game translates – or doesn`t – to links golf. In seven attempts, DeChambeau has just one top-10 finish (Royal Liverpool in 2022) and has missed the cut three times, including last year at Royal Troon.
Any outcome seems possible for the two-time U.S. Open champion this week. One could easily believe that DeChambeau will suddenly find his approach game, rely on his short game, and secure a decisive win at Portrush. Equally plausible is the scenario where he struggles to keep the ball in the fairway under challenging conditions and misses the cut. This style of golf isn`t traditionally suited to DeChambeau`s strengths, but watching his attempts to master it is certainly compelling.
5. Xander Schauffele
The reigning champion is placed at No. 5 partly because he has had a relatively quiet year since winning two majors last season. After dealing with a rib injury early in the year, Schauffele took time off and has been working to regain his top form. He has only recorded one top-10 finish this season. His strong approach play (ranking in the top 10 for strokes gained on tour) has helped offset what has been an unusually poor year for his driving, short game, and putting.
One of Schauffele`s greatest assets is his overall consistency, which was crucial in his come-from-behind victory at Troon last year. This quality will likely be essential again this week at Portrush.
6. Shane Lowry
Perhaps this ranking is slightly high for Lowry, but in 2019, he masterfully channeled the emotional energy of playing in a region he knows intimately to secure a dominant six-shot victory. The support Lowry will receive from the home crowd at a venue where he has already won should provide a significant advantage this week.
Like McIlroy, he will be an emotional favorite. While his form in majors this year hasn`t been stellar (two missed cuts and a tie for 42nd at the Masters), he has achieved four top-10 finishes on the regular tour, and it wouldn`t be surprising to see him perform well at Portrush once more.
7. Viktor Hovland
Predicting Viktor Hovland`s performance at a major championship these days feels like a complete lottery. Despite discussing his swing struggles and his pursuit of the perfect feel in press conferences, he might very well contend, as he did last month at Oakmont where he finished third and had a genuine chance to win on the back nine.
Earlier this year, Hovland missed three consecutive cuts, but shortly after, he won the Valspar Championship. Last year, he finished third at the PGA Championship but missed the cut in the other three majors, including the Open. Like DeChambeau, Hovland possesses the game to win this week, but the difference between his potential best and worst performance is perhaps wider than anyone else near the top of this list.
8. Collin Morikawa
Few players globally are striking the ball as effectively as Collin Morikawa has this season. His ball-striking remains world-class. Yet, despite securing four top-10 finishes, he hasn`t managed to claim a victory since the 2023 Zozo Championship.
Morikawa knows how to win this tournament – he did so in 2021 at Royal St. George`s. While his game has arguably improved since then, something seems to prevent him from putting together four consistent quality rounds at the sport`s most prestigious events. This year, he finished 14th at the Masters but has regressed in subsequent majors, finishing tied for 50th at the PGA Championship and tied for 23rd at the U.S. Open. In theory, at a course like Portrush, Morikawa`s precise iron play and driving accuracy should place him in contention. His putting performance (currently ranked 99th on tour this season) will likely dictate how high he can climb the leaderboard.
9. Ludvig Åberg
Immediately following Åberg`s victory at this year`s Genesis Invitational, he was the hottest topic in golf. Since then, however, Åberg has experienced a dip in form, missing four cuts (including at both the PGA and U.S. Open) and managing only one other top-10 finish (seventh place at the Masters). Despite this, Åberg is quietly showing signs of a resurgence. He seemed to find his rhythm at the Scottish Open last week, finishing tied for eighth. It would not be surprising to see him emerge as a contender at Portrush this week and remain in the mix through Sunday.
10. Tommy Fleetwood
Could this finally be Tommy Fleetwood`s week? He has come agonizingly close to winning a major in recent years and has also struggled to secure a victory anywhere other than the DP World Tour. Fleetwood`s game, characterized by elite ball-striking, seems perfectly suited for an Open Championship, and this particular venue should complement his strengths. Although he missed the cut at Troon last year, he finished inside the top 10 in his two previous Open appearances.
11. Tyrrell Hatton
Perhaps Tyrrell Hatton deserves a slightly higher ranking here. His performance at Oakmont was truly impressive, securing a tie for fourth – his best-ever finish at a major. It feels as though he has been steadily becoming more of a factor on major championship weekends (he has two top-15 finishes at Augusta in the last two years).
However, it`s difficult to ignore that Hatton`s on-course demeanor, particularly how he reacts to challenging shots or unfortunate bounces, will be severely tested by the links setup at Portrush. Regardless, watching him navigate the course this week promises to be entertaining.
12. Robert MacIntyre
Robert MacIntyre was notably impressive at Oakmont, handling the difficult conditions and Sunday delays to post a final round of 2 under par, briefly holding the clubhouse lead and coming close to forcing a playoff with Spaun. MacIntyre is clearly comfortable playing in this region and on links courses. Although he missed the cut at the Scottish Open last week, he possesses the required game to contend at Portrush this week.
13. Russell Henley
Whenever a course prioritizes precise ball-striking and accuracy over raw driving distance, Russell Henley tends to feature prominently, and for good reason. He is a top-10 player in strokes gained and has recorded eight top-10 finishes and one win this season. In majors, however, Henley has faced challenges, missing the cut at the Masters and the PGA. A top-10 finish at Oakmont felt more fitting for his game, and he arrives at Portrush following a fifth-place finish at Troon last year.
14. Brooks Koepka
Assessing Brooks Koepka`s current game is challenging. While he displayed flashes of his former brilliance at Oakmont and spoke candidly about struggling with his swing, he subsequently withdrew from a LIV event and finished tied for 32nd in his most recent tournament. If conditions at Portrush become difficult this week, Koepka has the potential to rise, but it`s also possible his game isn`t sharp enough at the moment to mount a serious challenge.
15. Joaquín Niemann
Joaquín Niemann arguably should be ranked higher than 15th. However, despite his continued success on LIV (four wins this season), his performances at the sport`s biggest events remain somewhat underwhelming. Even this year, after finally securing his first top-10 finish at a major during the PGA Championship, Niemann followed it up with a missed cut at Oakmont.
16. Justin Thomas
Justin Thomas and the Open Championship don`t appear to have a strong connection. In eight starts at this event, Thomas has missed the cut three times and has never finished inside the top 10. However, for those seeking optimism, Thomas`s best Open finish occurred at Portrush in 2019. That week, he played four rounds at even par or better. He will be hoping to replicate that level of performance on the Dunluce course this week.
17. Matt Fitzpatrick
It`s difficult to gauge Matt Fitzpatrick`s current form. He hasn`t won on tour since 2023 and hasn`t truly contended at a major since his 2022 U.S. Open victory. However, he has shown some encouraging recent form heading into this week, with an eighth-place finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and a fourth-place finish at the Scottish Open last week.
18. Jordan Spieth
Speaking of players whose performance is unpredictable, here is Jordan Spieth. While it`s challenging to envision him winning this week, even with his occasionally erratic play, Spieth has secured four top-10 finishes this season and has missed only two cuts. This is a significant improvement from last year, when he had three top-10s and seven missed cuts.
19. Justin Rose
Let`s not forget that Justin Rose had a legitimate chance to win this tournament last year at Troon, ultimately finishing in a tie for second. Rose has experienced a fluctuating year so far, taking McIlroy to a playoff at Augusta but missing three of his last four cuts, including at the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open. Nevertheless, at 44, he has demonstrated he can still compete at a high level, and the Open might represent his best opportunity to claim a second major title.
20. Corey Conners
Similar to Henley, Corey Conners` primary strength is his exceptional ball-striking, a skill that should translate well to a links course like Portrush. He hasn`t yet consistently elevated his game enough to truly challenge for a major championship (his best finish is a sixth place at the 2022 Masters). However, as demonstrated by Brian Harman`s victory in 2022, the Open occasionally produces unexpected champions who simply keep the ball in play throughout the week. Conners certainly fits the profile of a player capable of doing just that.
21. J.J. Spaun
Much like Wyndham Clark after his 2023 U.S. Open triumph, J.J. Spaun`s career trajectory has shifted following his win at Oakmont. Following up that major victory with another competitive performance at this level will be a significant challenge, particularly as this week marks Spaun`s debut appearance in an Open Championship.
22. Ben Griffin
How could Ben Griffin not be included? The 29-year-old has been one of the standout performers on tour this season, securing two victories and accumulating eight top-10 finishes. Griffin hasn`t had much success at the Open previously, missing the cut in his two appearances, but he is playing at a significantly higher level this year.
23. Keegan Bradley
Five top-10 finishes, a top-10 at a major, and a PGA Tour win – that summarizes Keegan Bradley`s season so far. Discussions about him being a playing captain for the Ryder Cup are already gaining momentum. While he might not strictly need it, a strong finish at Portrush, or even an improbable win, would certainly cement his case.
24. Sepp Straka
In stark contrast to Brooks Koepka, Sepp Straka has established himself as a player who excels on the PGA Tour but consistently struggles on golf`s biggest stages. Like Griffin, he boasts two wins and five top-10s this season, yet he missed the cut at the Masters, the PGA Championship, and the U.S. Open.
25. Hideki Matsuyama
Hideki Matsuyama`s best performance at an Open Championship came in his debut in 2013, where he tied for sixth place at Muirfield. Can Matsuyama win? Absolutely. However, it would require a significant improvement in form for a player who hasn`t recorded a top-10 finish this year outside of his victory at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
First four out:
- Cameron Smith
- Patrick Reed
- Adam Scott
- Sam Burns
